With its latest all-time high in August, Bitcoin is breaking the usual post-halving pattern and may have peaked early, analysts at CoinGecko say.
Bitcoin (BTC) may have peaked earlier than expected this cycle if history is any guide, according to new research by CoinGecko.
In an Aug. 28 report, CoinGecko analysts said that after hitting a new all-time high of $124,128 in mid-August, BTC was lined up with the historical average time it has taken to reach an ATH post-halving in the past three cycles. If this latest ATH turns out to be the cycle top, it would mean Bitcoin’s price peaked 68 days earlier than its 2021 high of $69,044.
Historically, Bitcoin’s ATHs have come 12 to 18 months after halvings. According to CoinGecko data, the first post-halving ATH in 2013 came 368 days after the November 2012 halving, rising from $12 to $1,127. The next two cycles took longer: the 2017 ATH came 525 days post-halving at $19,665, and the 2021 peak at $69,044 arrived 549 days after that latest halving.
However, the 2025 cycle has set a new precedent. For the first time since 2012, Bitcoin hit a pre-halving ATH, reaching $73,581 on March 14, 2024, after a two-month rally fueled by the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The front-loaded demand resulted in a break in cycle pattern, which may potentially counteract the trend of lengthening cycles and indicate a fundamental market shift,” CoinGecko’s analysts wrote.
Bitcoin in Correction
The market is still shaky, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, who told The Defiant that the current price action looks more like a correction rather than the sign of a top.
“Although it’s difficult to pinpoint when a cycle top has been reached, especially so near to the previous all-time high, the indicators we follow still suggest current price action is a correction, and not a top. MVRV Ratio Z-score has not flagged an extreme overvaluation for Bitcoin (red area in the first chart), but indicates a lack of positive price momentum (MVRV below its 365-day moving average),” Moreno told The Defiant.
Speaking with The Defiant, Moreno added that Bitcoin whale holdings are “still growing and above their 365-day moving average,” which indicates that the bull market “continues as demand is still expanding (second chart).” Yet, Moreno admitted that bearish sentiment “is dominating right now.”
Ryan Chow, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin DeFi platform Solv Protocol told The Defiant that Bitcoin’s runway can be extended into Q4 should there be policy easing or dollar liquidity improvement. However, without this backing, the August peak “may stand as this cycle’s high.”
CoinGecko’s report notes that if the latest ATH isn’t the cycle peak, Bitcoin could hit a final cycle high sometime between late September and late October, depending on factors like the upcoming U.S. Fed rate decision.
According to Morgan Stanley, markets see a more than 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, though the odds may be closer to 50-50 given strong economic indicators, like GDP growth and low market volatility.
Are Halving Cycles Over?
In late July, separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives suggested that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle — the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving before crashing and recovering — might be losing relevance.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that while large holders used to sell to retail near peaks, now whales are passing coins to other long-term holders, weakening traditional cycle patterns.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, in his turn, explained that the forces behind past cycles “are weaker” now as halving impacts fade and long-term trends like institutional adoption, ETFs, and regulatory progress play a bigger role.
